EUROPE: Nationalisation might come back on agenda
The Swedish government is pressing ahead with its ambitious privatisation plan, while the German government is still confident that the partial privatisation of its railway company (Deutsche Bahn) will be completed this year. Yet such cases are relatively unusual in the current climate, indicating how this once popular policy has slipped down the political agenda in recent years. Recent developments across Europe in favour of nationalisation remain anomalies for now and are not indicative of any broader trend. Yet if economic conditions deteriorate, the politics of ownership may well undergo a fundamental change of direction beyond a simple slowdown in privatisation.

EUROPEAN UNION: Slovakia is on track for euro
The euro-area government deficit more than halved last year in absolute and relative terms from 1.3% of GDP in 2006 to 0.6% in 2007, Eurostat reported today. Government debt, while decreasing from 68.4% to 66.3% of GDP, increased in absolute terms. Last year, all euro-area members informally agreed to balance their budgets by 2010; yet Italy and France have already voiced doubts about meeting the deadline. For the first time in years, all euro-area members have brought their budget deficits under the 3% EU limit, largely thanks to increased tax receipts from the recent economic upswing. Italy and Portugal can now expect the European Commission to end its excessive deficit procedure against them. While Germany achieved a balanced budget, France's deficit increased from 2.4% to 2.7%. Overall, the euro-area is thus in relatively good shape as global financial conditions continue to deteriorate, but there is only limited scope for fiscal measures to counteract the economic downturn. In the EU-27, Hungary has the highest deficit at 5.5%, although a sharp reduction from 9.2% in 2006. The figures are particularly encouraging for Slovakia, which hopes to adopt the euro in January 2009. Having brought down its deficit from 3.6% to 2.2%, and recording inflation at only 2.2% in March year-on-year, Slovakia has cleared some key hurdles in its euro bid.

EU/RUSSIA/MIDDLE EAST: EU divided on energy
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki yesterday announced plans to form an energy security partnership at a meeting in Brussels. This follows similar EU announcements last week on an EU-Turkmenistan deal on gas supplies. The EU-Iraq partnership could involve the import of natural gas from Iraq to the EU via the planned Nabucco pipeline, in return for which the EU would provide technical assistance to develop the Iraqi oil and gas sector and favourable trade agreements. The EU is keen to diversify its energy sources and reduce dependence on imports from Russia. However, the recently announced deals face numerous obstacles, not least uncertainties surrounding the actual availability of gas reserves in the supplier countries and the lack of transport routes. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is today visiting Libya seeking, among other things, to improve energy cooperation, before going to Italy. Last week, Russia's Gazprom and Italy's ENI announced plans for joint gas projects in Libya. The Commission tries hard maintain the appearance of a common European energy strategy in pursuing projects that have little concrete basis. However, European capitals are pressing ahead with concrete bilateral deals, which in the long run might increase dependency on Russia.

BoE follows Fed to 'socialise' losses
The Bank of England (BoE) today announces plans to exchange up to 50 billion pounds (100 billion dollars) in government bonds for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling yesterday noted that the BoE's plan aims to "unfreeze" the mortgage market, after rising borrowing costs had led banks to withdraw their mortgage offers, which put the UK housing market at risk of further falls. The BoE's three interest-rate cuts since December have not been able to restore lending. This latest move follows the US Federal Reserve's lead: allowing banks to swap their MBS for Treasuries in order to stimulate lending and provide greater liquidity to the system. While details of the UK plan have yet to be clarified, it is clear that the government is taking a much greater interventionist stance, effectively socialising economic losses and potentially 're-municipalising' the housing market. Yet even though the Fed and BoE have aimed to ease funding by taking on additional credit risk -- through exchanging hard-to-refinance MBS for government securities -- central banks cannot help with solvency issues directly. Commercial banks are making losses and cutting back on lending, thus reducing demand for low-grade credit instruments. Central banks are trying to persuade commercial banks to sort out their own balance sheets by re-pricing assets, particularly mortgage assets. The BoE's latest intervention demonstrates that central banks are committed to stabilising the financial system and preventing recurrence of acute liquidity pressures. Yet there is little they can do to address underlying problems of solvency arising from fears about mortgage-
based assets.

Turkey may be fit for EU in a decade, enlargement chief says
If it remains fully committed to the reform path, Turkey could join the European Union in 10 to 15 years, EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn has said.
He has also announced that two more chapters out of the 35-chapter accession package - business law and intellectual property - are likely to be opened as early as June, increasing the total number to eight.
Additional chapters, including the one on energy, could follow under the French EU presidency in the second half of this year.
The message comes at a time described by commissioner Rehn as "a more critical phase than at any time since its negotiations to join the EU in 2005 began."
Speaking to German daily Die Welt, he said: "It is important that the EU show it is committed to Turkey's membership in difficult times."
Turkey's constitutional court is currently looking into a case aimed at shutting down the ruling centre-right Justice and Development Party (AK Party), accused by prosecutors of harbouring a hidden agenda to build an Islamist state.
But the EU is critical of the move. A ban of the AK Party would harm the reform process, the Finnish commissioner said.
Mr Rehn also urged Ankara to "stay convincingly on its reform course", singling out freedom of speech, women's rights and expanded rights for minorities.
Meanwhile, Austria reiterated on Monday (21 April) its position that the accession talks between the EU and Turkey do not have to result in full membership.
"We are aware that for the Turkish side, the one and only exclusive goal is membership in the European Union," Austrian Foreign Minister Ursula Plassnik said on her visit to Ankara, adding: "I could imagine a tailor-made Turkey-European Union community as another rational, realistic alternative."
A similar view, often also described as a privileged partnership, is favoured by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

MEPs to use budget power over EU president perks
Members of the European Parliament are prepared to use their hold over the bloc's purse-strings to try and make sure that the proposed new EU president does not wield too much power.
"The treaty is very clear about the duties [of the president]," the head of the parliament's budget committee, Reimer Boege, told EUobserver, noting that it says the person can have an administrative role, "but not take over an executive function."
"Budget power is always used as a weapon. This is a principle," said the centre-right German MEP.
The parliament, wary of upsetting the fine balance of power between the EU institutions, will have a chance to use this weapon when it comes to negotiations later this year on the 2009 budget.
Mr Boege said that MEPs will looking out to see that if any extra perks for the president – a private plane and a residence are rumoured to be under consideration – would be "linked to lowering the communitarian level in the treaty", meaning reducing the power of the European commission and boosting inter-governmental politics.
The MEP urged member states who are due to deliver a draft budget to the parliament before the summer to show a "flexible and responsible approach" and indicated that euro-deputies would be inclined to accept a salary and staff set-up for the president that does not exceed that of the immediate staff of the European commission president (around 20).
The first reading of the budget is due in October, but MEPs are already fretting about the institutional implications of the Lisbon Treaty, which is supposed to come into force by the beginning of next year.
Earlier this month, senior MEPs, including parliament President Hans-Gert Poettering, met European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso to raise certain points about the treaty, particularly concerning the remit of the proposed president.
The treaty foresees a purely administrative role for the President of the European Council – the formal title of the post - organising the meetings of EU leaders.
However, there is the potential for external representation overlap with the foreign minister and the commission president, while the role is also set to be defined by the person who gets the job.
Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, one of those often mentioned as a contender for the post, had said the president should not be "an empty figurehead or a director of ceremonies."
French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who will head the EU later this year when the job description is to be decided, shares this opinion. Others, such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel, are said to want to keep a lid on the president's powers.
A pre-democracy situation
For their part, MEPs suggest there will be a democratic legitimacy problem if the president has too much power, as the person will be chosen by the 27 EU leaders - in a closed-door process - and is not accountable to the European Parliament.
They note where the president has operational powers, that person is directly elected, such as in France or the US.
A powerful EU president that is neither subject to parliamentary control nor elected by citizens "would lead us to a pre-democratic situation," German centre-right MEP Elmar Brok told the constitutional affairs committee earlier this month.
Speaking about the possible size of the president's entourage - which some in council (the member states' body) have suggested should run to 60 people, including security officials, cabinet, chauffeurs and secretaries - Mr Brok said:
"I am of the opinion that if we cannot come to agreement on this, then we should abandon the gentleman's agreement whereby one does not mess with the budget of another institution, because now we are talking about operational powers. It is no longer about the implementation of purely organisational duties."

Javier SOLANA, EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security policy (CFSP), issued the following statement after the Stabilisation and Association Agreement with Serbia was signed in Luxembourg today:

"Today is an important day for Serbia and for the European Union.

The signing of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with Serbia is a powerful signal to the people of Serbia that their future lies in Europe. The people of Serbia will share the security, prosperity and freedom of movement that is already enjoyed today by the citizens of the European Union. Achieving this objective will take hard work and tough decisions, and it will take some time. However, the signing of the SAA is an important milestone on the way, bringing you significantly closer to that goal. Now it is fundamental that Serbia remains on track and firmly committed to the values which underlie the European project.

Today is also an important day for the European Union. Serbia is an enormously important partner. It has great economic, cultural and intellectual potential and this can make it a powerful motor for the progress of the entire region. Cooperation and genuine partnership between Brussels and Belgrade, including on the difficult issues, is vital for the success of our joint efforts to promote stability and prosperity.

The European Union will not be complete until the countries of the region have joined the family. Today, we have taken an important step towards this objective."

SERBIA/EU: EU pact will fail to bring stability

Serbia signed its own Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU yesterday.

Following the 1999 Kosovo crisis, the EU set up the Stabilisation and Association Process, in order to encourage regional security, transition to market economies and cooperation. A country that has an SAA is a step nearer EU membership, although to become a candidate it must first demonstrate progress on fulfilling the commitments enshrined in the agreement, which focus heavily on trade.

The signing of Serbia's Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) is a major achievement for both the EU, and President Boris Tadic and his political allies. However, it has not been easily achieved. The EU initialled the SAA and hoped to sign it months ago, either before or immediately after Kosovo's declaration of independence. The declaration was coordinated with a number of EU member states and depended on an EU police and security mission being deployed as part of 'supervised' independence under a plan worked out by the EU and UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari.

Agreement on the SAA was delayed by three factors:

Serbian divisions. Tadic, his Democratic Party and its allies in government support a 'European path' and were in favour of signing the SAA regardless of the position in Kosovo. They argued that these were separate issues, to be treated separately. Tadic hoped to sign the SAA before the Kosovo declaration, knowing that the secession would have a negative impact on both politics in Serbia and the campaign to pursue EU association and membership.
Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica and a range of nationalist parties oppose the SAA, arguing both that Serbia should not have relations with a body that treated part of Serbia's constitutional territory as separate, and that the SAA meant recognition of Kosovo. In response to the signing, Kostunica declared that Tadic was accepting the EU's policy of 'deception', and that he would scrap it were he to be re-elected on May 11.

EU divisions. The SAA has not had an easy passage on the EU side, because of divisions between member states over Kosovo's independence. Two days before the declaration, the EU approved EULEX, a major policing and security mission (see EU/KOSOVO: EULEX mission will be tested in Kosovo - March 12, 2008). However, approval itself only came with a sleight-of-hand manoeuvre, whereby a deadline was quietly set for objections to the mission to be expressed by midnight on February 15-16, rather than a formal agreement by ministers meeting face-to-face, where disagreements would emerge again. The date for this tacit agreement was clearly set for it to be adopted technically, while there was no contest over Kosovo's actual status and the UN mandate was clear. This would not be the case, once the expected declaration of independence was made, on February 17.
There was a clear sense of disingenuousness in this approach, but the compromise permitted the EU to act collectively, despite reservations in some quarters, leaving each member state to pursue its own policy regarding recognition of Kosovo.

War crimes cooperation. A particular source of division and an obstacle for both Serbia and the EU concerned Belgrade's cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY). For many years, the EU and its member states had set full cooperation as a condition for the SAA. This was a difficulty for democratic forces in Serbia, which were not well-placed to counter Military Security Agency protection to the few remaining -- but prominent -- war crimes suspects, including General Ratko Mladic and Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic (see SERBIA: Network protecting Mladic may have broken - June 27, 2007).
Following Kosovo's recognition by 18 of the 27 EU members, even the democrats in Belgrade shifted to a position where the war crimes suspects were 'not a priority' for Serbia. They judged that recognition of Kosovo was a breach of an internationally binding UN Security Council resolution, which removed their obligation to cooperate under a similar resolution concerning the ICTY. One of the main EU proponents of a hard line on cooperation, the United Kingdom, immediately softened its stance, in the light of this position.
However, the other long-time proponent of taking a hard line, the Netherlands, did not, and was joined by Germany and Belgium, following violent attacks on their Belgrade embassies in the wake of Kosovo's recognition. In the past few days, all three have agreed to drop insistence on full cooperation to allow the SAA to be signed, with the proviso that its coming into force will depend on cooperation with the ICTY.

International disarray in Kosovo. The difficulties and divisions affecting the EU have created a lack of coherence on the ground in Kosovo, where significant tensions have emerged with the UN mission (UNMIK) there. Both Belgrade and local Serbs have said that they will continue to work with UNMIK, which they regard as legitimate. They would only work with EULEX if it were formally acknowledged as being subordinate to UNMIK under Security Council Resolution 1244. Added to this, Belgrade's decision to assert its formal sovereignty by including Kosovo in the coming parliamentary elections in May has added to tensions.

Senior military and diplomatic figures in Kosovo have expressed sharply divergent views about cooperation between the UN and the EU in an increasingly tense security situation. It was strongly rumoured that UNMIK chief Joachim Ruecker was about to resign because of tensions over EULEX when he went to New York to present his report on the situation to the Security Council in closed session in mid-April. This followed an earlier attempt by his junior working with Serb communities in Kosovo to resign in the wake of Kosovo's declaration of independence (see KOSOVO: Partition looks unlikely in short term - March 24, 2008). These troubles within UNMIK reflect tensions in Kosovo and with EULEX. There have been sharp differences between the international missions.

UNMIK and EULEX. Ruecker said yesterday that the transfer of responsibility to EULEX as scheduled in June was "far from certain" and the UN mission's responsibility would continue for as long as Resolution 1244 existed. This followed strong words by his military adviser, Major-General Raul Cunha, a week before. He said that the EU and international position on Kosovo was "hypocritical"; that for all its claims to be aiming at creating peace and stability, it was working in the other direction; and that it would be necessary to continue the UN mission in the northern -- Serb majority -- areas of Kosovo. Cunha said the EU put too much store by the EU 'carrot' and expected the Serbs to accept anything to achieve membership -- this had proved over-optimistic.
As a compromise, Slovenia, holding the rotating EU presidency, suggested that EULEX be seen as supporting UNMIK and 'strengthening the EU pillar' under it. However, EULEX chief General Yves de Kermabon has publicly rejected any power-sharing arrangement.


CONCLUSION: The divergent comments of UN and EU generals and diplomats indicate international disarray in Kosovo, two months after the province declared independence from Serbia in coordination with parts of the international community. These deep tensions may bring into question the future of international involvement there and regional security. The signing by the EU and Serbia of an SAA will do little in the short term to promote peace and security in the region.

Goodbye Balkans, Hello Adriatic Penninsula
The EU's Western Balkans policy has had a mixed record since 2001. The EU can claim successes in Croatia, Montenegro, Albania and Macedonia - even if dangers remain - but ten years of European policy have reached a dead-end in Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia. With little left of its mandate, the European Commission is unlikely to change policy. But new thinking is required in preparation for the next Commission.
Such new thinking must recognise the differences between two Balkans. On the one hand, the "Adriatic Peninsula" (Croatia, Albania, Montenegro and Macedonia) where progress has taken place and the current enlargement strategy - with some adjustments - is likely to work.
And, on the other hand, the "Central Balkans" (Serbia, Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina) where intractable territorial and ethno-political problems have proven immune to the EU's Stabilisation and Association process, the hands-on ESPD missions and light-touch protectorates.
Re-branding the region will, of course, not solve anything by itself. But the "Western Balkans", a term invented in the late 1990s to describe the wedge-shaped Peninsula, has outlived its usefulness. Changing it would be a first, conceptual step towards a new approach. But other, more radical changes are required.

The Adriatic Peninsula
First to Adriatic Peninsula. Progress in Macedonia, Croatia and Albania has been considerable. Bureaucratic systems have shown a willingness to adapt and improve. Problems remain. Compliance with the rule of law and international obligations is lacking, and the respect for minority rights needs to be improved. Crime is also a problem, especially in Albania and Montenegro.
But despite this it is probably fair to assume that the EU's strategy - of focusing on regional cooperation, conditionality and using country-based plans - is solid. The question is how to speed up progress and insulate these countries from developments in the Central Balkans?

First, the EU should give thee three countries of the Adriatic Region a date when they can expect to join the EU: Croatia's could be 2010, Albania's 2011 and Macedonia's 2012. Though they would only be allowed at these dates if the aquis communitaire has been adopted.
This "reverse conditionality" should give an injection of adrenalin into the countries' reform processes, inter alia, by putting to rest fears that the EU is pre-occupied with its "absorptive capacity" and frets over the links to Turkey's membership bid.

Second, the EU should immediately allow access by the three countries to as many aspects of the EU as possible. This form of "enlargement without the institutions", as my colleague Jose Ignacio Torreblanca calls it, could see the countries join e.g. the European Defence Agency.

Third, the EU should look for ways to tighten regional cooperation within the Adriatic Peninsula. Until now, the EU has made regional cooperation across the whole region a key part of its strategy. But today trade is easier between the EU and the region than between the countries of the region. At the same time, the EU must acknowledge that improved regional ties are unlikely to change dynamics in the Central Balkans. Regional cooperation should therefore shift towards the Adriatic Peninsula.

The Central Balkans
But what should a new approach to the Central Balkans contain? In this region the EU has spent billions of euros, dispatched almost half of its deployable military forces and seen only meagre returns. Zero growth and pervasive corruption vie for attention with high unemployment, renewed ethnic tensions, non-compliance with ICTY and popular disappointment with EU integration.
Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo are unlikely to have the institutional wherewithal and human capital to implement even half of the SAA process in the next decade.
But if the European Commission will have to abandon its traditional approach, so does the Council Secretariat. The ESDP missions in Bosnia - EUPM and EUFOR - have done little to change dynamics and even assuming that the EU's current problems in Kosovo - a lack of EU consensus on the country's status, partition across the Ibar River, Serbia's obstructionism and poor UN-EU cooperation - can be solved, there is no possibility of quick-wins.
In Bosnia, it is common-place to blame the Office of the High Representative, a UN-mandated quasi-protectorate, for the lack of progress. To be sure, decisions by international fiat have made it easier for the country's politicians to shirk responsibility for their own destructive policies. But the High Rep's powers are considerably less than most people realise and the idea that replacing the HighRep entirely with an EUSR will ipso facto make local politicians eager to reconcile their differences and push reforms, is not credible.
Finally in Serbia, there has been a hardening of anti-EU views following Kosovo's independence and in the run-up to next month's election. The tentative steps taken, including efforts to understand the country's nefarious role in the break-up of Yugoslavia, are now imperilled.
The national mood - a mix of self-pity and an unrealistic sense of self-importance ("The EU needs Serbia more than vice versa", a Serbian official recently told me) - is leading the country away from reforms and the EU and towards Russia, which is only happy to advance its geo-strategic and commercial interests under the guise of Slavic fraternity. Meanwhile, the EU's effort to shore up moderates has come to naught.
The framework for the EU's approach - conditionality and country-tailored plans - is probably right, but should be considered to make its application likely to succeed. A new EU Central Balkans policy should, in Bosnia and Kosovo, abandon the idea that the aquis communitarie is of any relevance for at least another decade. Instead, the EU should focus on two or three political steps needed by politicians both in Kosovo and Bosnia rather than the more than 100 requirements put down today.
This leaves Serbia, the EU's most difficult challenge. The temptation is to live and let live. To allow Serbia to rage for a while and gradually come to her senses, as the population discovers Russia offers no alternative.
Such a containment strategy, to be employed if the nationalists win the forthcoming elections, could be complimented by granting Serbs as high a degree of freedom of movement as possible, allowing the young and disaffected to see that it can be so much better over the border.

In all three cases, EU funds should probably shift from capacity-building to infrastructure and other large-scale public investments. But these funds should at the same time be tied to clear conditions. The obvious temptation will be to pretend that an F performance is really a C. But being unserious about conditionality, applying varying standards and suggesting that policies are working when they are not is the fastest way to ensure the EU approach comes unpicked.

Changing the EU's enlargement set-up
To oversee the relationship between the EU and the two re-named regions, DG Enlargement in the European Commission should be broken into two.
On the one hand, there should be a new DG - DG Integration - which would handle relations with Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania, work towards a new Integration Strategy and be staffed by existing Commission staff. On the other hand, there should be a DG Enlargement, which would cover the Central Balkans, Turkey, Ukraine etc., work towards a modified and more political "Enlargement Strategy", and be staffed by Commission and Council personnel as well as seconded diplomats on loan from the EU-27.
In the Central Balkans, the EU needs to be streamlined with the ESDP missions and EC Delegations coming under one EUSR, who needs to be a senior political figure, not a bureaucrat. This, and the new DG Enlargement, will allow a more political approach than is the case, and perhaps be a test-case for how the new EEAS will function when the Lisbon Treaty is fully implementation.

Conclusion
Some analysts argue that there is no reason to change EU policy. Croatia, Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro seem to be making progress. In the Central Balkans, the billions of euros spent may not produce results, but they keep a lid on any fighting.
Besides, some analysts say, what is the hurry? If it takes another decade for the region to move towards the EU, then this may be a small price to pay for compliance with norms and values - like cooperation with ICTY - which lie at the heart of the EU. But progress in the Adriatic Peninsula is not yet self-sustainable while things can get a lot worse in the Central Balkans. To avoid both, new thinking is needed.

France no longer supports Blair for EU president
Paris is no longer supporting the idea of Tony Blair becoming the first president of the European Council, according to French and British media reports.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Tuesday (6 May) let it be known that instead of the UK former prime minister taking the post, he would prefer the job go to Luxembourg prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker.
While Mr Juncker - a veteran of the EU stage - is favourite to take the president job, Jose Manuel Barroso is set to win a second term as head of the European Commission, according to Elysee sources quoted by French daily Le Figaro.
The two politicians are "largely favoured" said the sources. The UK Independent suggested that another variation could see Mr Barroso become EU president while Mr Juncker takes on the commission post.
Mr Sarkozy, who takes over the chair of the EU in July, had previously openly backed Mr Blair for the post, mentioning the idea in public himself last year.
However, he has since come under pressure from other capitals, notably Berlin, to rescind this support.
In addition French socialists are against the idea of Mr Blair having the post, as he is seen as coming from too eurosceptic a country that has not signed up to core EU policies, such as aspects of justice and home affairs.
Mr Rasmussen, the liberal Danish prime minister, is seen to have ruled himself out of speculation for the post because he is more interested in a NATO job.

The job description for the EU president still has to be defined. There are two opposing camps on the matter in Brussels. On the one side, there are those who think it should be a high-profile post with real political bite while the other side favours a low-profile more organisational post.
For his part, Mr Juncker has previously said it should not be simply be "an empty figurehead."
EU member states are set to decide both the person and the job description later this year.
Both Mr Juncker and Mr Barroso are from the same centre-right political family, meaning the third big post up for grabs - that of EU foreign minister - should go to a person from the socialists or the liberals.
But according to Le Figaro, Javier Solana, a Spanish socialist, and current EU foreign policy chief, is not favoured by Paris.
One aspect that could upset the behind-the-doors scheming is next year's European elections. The president of the commission has to be chosen in light of the results of the elections, meaning that the centre-right have to remain the dominant political family for the Paris-favoured scenario to have a chance of succeeding.
On top of this, London will have to be persuaded of the merits of Mr Juncker in the top post, as he is judged too federalist by Britain.
In 2004, the last time this round of posts came up for negotiation, Britain refused to accept former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt as commission president, then favoured by Paris and Berlin, resulting in the unexpected nomination of Mr Barroso.

EK upozorava Bugarsku u pogledu industrijskih dozvola i poreza na dividendu
07/05/2008
BRISEL, Belgija -- Evropska komisija (EK) saopštila je u utorak (6. maja) da šalje zvanično obaveštenje Bugarskoj tražeći dodatne informacije o prikupljanju poreza na dividende koji su platile strane kompanije koje posluju u toj zemlji ili su im naplaćeni. Ti porezi su možda veći od ekvivalenta koji važi za bugarske kompanije. Sličan korak preduzet je i protiv Rumunije. EK je navela da bi veći porezi na dividendu za strane kompanije mogli da predstavljaju narušavanje slobodnog kretanja kapitala.

Komisija je takođe uputila Bugarskoj zvanično upozorenje u vezi sa njenim propustom da izda nove ili obnovi dozvole za nekoliko industrijskih instalacija. Prema EK, Bugarska je bila obavezna da izda nove ili obnovi dozvole za industrijske instalacije do svog prijema u EU 1. januara 2007. godine, u skladu sa direktivom o integrisanoj prevenciji i kontroli zagađenja. (BNR, BTA, Sofijska novinska agencija, Dnevnik - 06/05/08)

The dollar recently fell to a new low against the euro and ten-year low against the yen
The dollar closed yesterday at 1.5476 against the euro and 100.050 against the yen. Both represent annual depreciations of over 15%:

The decline has been repeated against free-floating currencies generally, with the Fed's index of dollar value against a trade-weighted basket of free-floaters falling 12% in that period. The basket includes the euro, yen, sterling, Swiss franc, Swedish krona and Canadian and Australian dollars.
Further declines are likely: a reduction in the Federal Funds rate to zero or near-zero probably is likely, but has yet to be priced into currency markets. Once acknowledged, this will send floating currencies to cyclical peaks (see INTERNATIONAL: Declining dollar impacts global economy - January 3, 2008).
Fundamental realignment. OECD currencies will not be taking all the strain of US policy accommodation:

Currency policy is "strong" in many emerging markets. Against an index of emerging-market currencies, the dollar has depreciated 15% since mid-2004.
The index in order of size in US trade comprises China, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brazil, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, India, Israel, Russia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Philippines, Chile, Venezuela, Argentina and Colombia .
This is a significant change in tack:

For most of the post-2001 business cycle, the dollar appreciated against this index. Total appreciation was 8% between late 2001 and mid-2004.
By contrast, the dollar fell 20% against OECD currencies during the period.
In November 2004, the dollar began falling against emerging-market currencies. On an almost daily basis, the pace has been a steady 2-4% year-on-year decline, and has quickened to more than 5% currently.
Renminbi. The shift is reflected most in the dollar-renminbi rate:

The pace of renminbi appreciation accelerated materially from July 2006. At that time, the renminbi was closing daily around 1.5% higher against the dollar on an annual basis.
This rate quickened over the following year, to 5% daily appreciation by July 2007.
Today, the pace eclipses 7% every day.
Disquiet over strengthening inflation in China suggests authorities will allow an even more bullish currency setting. A one-off renminbi revaluation is not in prospect, but trading will close at ever-stronger levels. The policy will provide a supportive foundation for domestic-led Chinese growth, and some relief to US and European traded goods sectors.

Real exchange rates. The story is not appreciably different for inflation-adjusted measures of the dollar. On this basis, the broad dollar fell 8% since January 2005. However, for other currencies, the real exchange rate suggests a far more nuanced story than sensational nominal movements. Between January 2005 and February 2008:

natural resource exporters such as Russia, Brazil, Canada and Australia have seen real appreciations greater than 10%;
the sole non-commodity currency sharing these big appreciations is China, with a 16% real appreciation over this period; and
the euro's real exchange rate has not changed, while the yen has declined 21%.
Correctly valued? Real, trade-weighted values are important because they reflect the currency's impact on international competitiveness in the traded sector. This puts recent euro and yen strength in a more nuanced light:

Neither currency seems to have been overvalued on a real basis.
Indeed the yen enjoyed remarkable gains in competitiveness over the preceding 24 months.
This also helps explain the resilience of German exports despite nominal currency strength.
Broader ramifications. Current re-alignment of currencies suggests consolidation of OECD currency strength against the dollar. More important is the ascendance of commodity currencies and the renminbi. Broader ramifications are interlinked:

Commodities. A stronger renminbi will transmit more fully commodity currency appreciation to China's export markets:
Until now, China has played a central role in ameliorating the rise in commodity prices and currencies. It has done this by suffering a continual terms of trade decline.
A stronger renminbi will undermine this disinflationary dynamic (see CHINA: Beijing intervenes to manage risks - January 24, 2008). The result is a change in relative prices globally.
This suggests that commodity price strength is more structural than cyclical.
US monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve is likely to deviate from its conventional "reaction function", erring on the side of too-high inflation, rather than too-low growth.
It will do this by making greater use of ambiguity in its mandate to support employment while stabilising prices, arguing that price stability is a long-term objective.
As markets acknowledge the new reaction function, the dollar will suffer further declines.
Dollar demoted. This outcome has material consequences for the dollar's key currency status. It will not lose such status, but soon will share it with the euro:

Endemic dollar weakness raises the attraction of pricing commodities in euros. In commodities where market pricing moves to euros, the currency pegs of relevant exporters will follow.
This would have a second-round effect on the dollar, as these sources of support for the currency evaporate.
Outlook. While the dollar faces realignment against OECD and developing-world currencies, its travails should not be exaggerated. A low dollar will bestow significant competitiveness on the US traded sector, which will post an unmistakable response (see UNITED STATES: Traded sector may hasten US recovery - March 10, 2008). With strong growth prospects, cheap assets and a buoyant external balance, the US economy again will hold a strong attraction to international capital (see INTERNATIONAL: Dollar is safe as world currency - January 22, 2008).

CONCLUSION: Developed- and developing-world currencies alike are sharing the burden of adjustment to US policy accommodation. As markets understand that US policy is likely to err on the side of price-incaution, floating currencies will find cyclical peaks. Combined with more appreciation in developing-world currencies, this suggests more dollar weakness. In turn, the possibility is rising of some commodity pricing in euros, which would re-align currency pegs. This would cement the higher competitiveness of the US traded goods sector, stimulating growth. It would also make US assets cheaper. This combination suggests a floor to dollar depreciation.

Masovna hapšenja u Italiji
Italijanska policija uhapsila je 385 ljudi, od kojih 268 stranaca, saopštilo je danas Ministarstvo unutrašnjih poslova Italije.

U akciji sprovedenoj od sjevera Italije do napuljske regije, koja je počela prošle nedjelje u sklopu borbe protiv kriminala i ilegalne imigracije, italijanska policija, uz saradnju sa kolegama drugih evropskih zemalja, uhapsila je najviše Rumuna i državljana zemalja Magreba.

Zbog sumnje da ilegalno borave u Italiji, uhapšeno je 112 lica, a neki od njih su odmah po hapšenju protjerani iz zemlje.

Italijani mahom optužuju Rome za porast opšteg a pogotovo imigrantskog kriminala.

--------------------------------
Jedan od prvih poteza nove Italijanske vlade. Bilo je vise incidenata u posljednje vrijeme u ITA vezanih za strance pretezno Rome i Rumune. Rumuni kao novi EU clanovi prakticno dolaze u velikom broju plus jezicka bliskost. Ovakav dogadjaj medjutim ukazuje vise na cinjenicu da Italija nije spremna da rjesava druge stvari i da sada za pokrice nalazi strance. Klasican populisticki potez nove desnicarkse vlade koji mirise dosta na doba od prije 50 godina.

Sve za nuklearni sistem
RUSKI PREDSJEDNIK POSJETIO TAJNU RAKETNU BAZU
Tejkovo (Beta/Rojters) - Ruski predsjednik Dmitrij Medvedev juče je rekao da će ruski nuklearni vojni sistemi biti i dalje finansirani koliko je potrebno, kako bi mogli da preduprijede opasnosti po nacionalnu bezbjednost.
Medvedev je juče, u okviru svoje prve posjete unutar Rusije od stupanja na dužnost predsjednika, obišao tajnu raketnu bazu, skrivenu u šumi, udaljenoj oko 250 kilometara od Moskve.
"Očigledno je da je naš zadatak da u narednih nekoliko godina obezbijedimo sva potrebna sredstva za strateške raketne snage kako bi mogle da se nose sa postojećim prijetnjama", rekao je on na ručku sa vojnicima i oficirima u bazi.
Kao vrhovni zapovjednik ruskih oružanih snaga, Medvedev je od Vladimira Putina naslijedio takozvani "nuklearni kofer" za automatskim kontrolama za ruski nuklearni arsenal.
Medvedevu je, po dolasku u bazu, predstavljeno desetak velikih pokretnih lansirnih rampi sa nuklearnim raketama "topol", a zatim mu je prikazana i nova verzija rakete "topol-m", za koju zvaničnici u Kremlju i ruska vojska tvrde da je oružje 21. vijeka.
"Ovo je odgovor na sve bezbjednosne prijetnje Rusiji, uključujući (američki) protivraketni štit", rekao je komandant ruskih raketnih snaga, general Nikolaj Solovcov Medvedevu.
Raketa "topol-M", koja može biti postavljena u podzemnu komoru za balističke rakete ili na pokretnu lansirnu rampu, može da predje razdaljinu veću od 6.000 milja i da pogodi bilo koju metu na teritoriji Sjedinjenih Američkih Država.
Rusija posjeduje "trijadu" strateškog nukelarnog oružja, uključujući projektile, podmornice i bombardere koji mogu doseći tlo SAD.
------------------------------------

Kad sam bio u Rusiji vele mi ovo je bila tajna fabrika u doba SSSR. A ono hangar dugacak barem 400m sirine barem 50 na 10 minuta od centra grada dje mu mjesto nije.

ZBOG MANJAKAVOSTI U UPRAVLJANJU NOVCEM IZ EVROPSKIH FONDOVA SOFIJA BI MOGLA IZGUBITI 11 MILIJARDI EURA

Bugarska na ledu

Euractiv 19/05/2008 14:13
Brisel – Bugarska bi mogla izgubiti oko 11 milijardi eura iz evropskih fondova zato što Evropska komisija ne vjeruje mehanizmima te nove članice EU za upravljanjem novcem Unije opredijeljenim za Bugarsku.
Kako piše bugarska redakcija EurAktiva, Njemačka i Austrija pozvale su da se ukinu fondovi EU namijenjeni Bugarskoj zbog korupcije i nedostataka u načinu upravljanja evropskim novcem.

Ugovor o pristupanju Bugarske EU, koja je u «elitni klub» ušla nzajedno sa Rumunijom u januaru 2007., predviđa mogućnost ovakvih sankcija u slučajevima loše uprave. Evropska komsija već je u zadnjih nekoliko mjeseci zamrznula finansiranje Bugarske iz predpristupnih programa pomoći (Phare, SAPARD and ISPA) zbog sumnji na prevaru i pronevjeru.

Trenutno Biro Evropske komisije za borbu protiv pronevjera(OLAF) sprovodi nekoliko istraga u Bugarskoj. Najteža sankcija o kojoj se razgovaralo u evropskim diplomatskim krugovima je primjena člana 7 Ugovora iz Nice, što može da vodi zamrzavanju članstva Bugarske u EU, objavio je bugarski nedjeljnik Kapital.

Nakon toga bi Sofija izgubila pravo glasa u Savjetu Evropske unije. Samo jednom do sada se desila slična kazna u istoriji Evropske unije i to 2000. protiv Austrije kada je u Vladu Austrije ušla ultradesničarska stranka Jerga Hajdera. Ipak, finansijske sankcije su mnogo realnije, ocjenjuju diplomate.

Zamrzavanje fondova do 2013!?

«Na političkom nivou postoji velika podrška da se EU fondovi namijenjeni Bugarskoj zamrznu do 2013.", saopštio je njemački diplomatski predstavnik u Sofiji, prenosi EurAktiv.
U namjeri da kupi vrijeme, Vlada Bugarske objavila je da namjerava da osnuje novu agenciju koja bi se bavila kontrolom novca iz evropskih fondova. Planirano je da to novo tijelo vodi vodi nedavno izabrana zamjenica predsjednika Vlade Meglena Plugčeva, koja bi bila zadužena samo za EU fondove.

Drugi izazov za Plugčevu, koja je ušla u Vladu 22. aprila, biće da poboljša komunikaciju između Sofije i Brisela.

Plugčeva je objelodanila da je Sofija često ignorisala korespondenciju iz Brisela. «Problem je bio domaći i bio je znak nemara i korupcije», kazala je ona.

Rok 16. jun

Danuta Hibner, evropska komesarka za regionalnu politiku, sastala se sa Plugčevom prošle sedmice u Briselu i rekla da će glavna prekretnica u njenom budućem radu biti da li će uspjeti da pripremi i pošalje dobar izvještaj o usaglašenosti narednih mjeseci.

Komesarka je rekla da je važno da se unaprijedi rukovođenje javnim nabavkama i upravljanje ugovorima, prenio je njen portparol.

Generalni direktor za proširenje u Evropskoj komisiji Majkl Lej dao je Bugarskoj rok do 16. juna da dokaže da se povinovala evropskim pravilima kada je u pitanje korišćenje evropskih fondova, objavio je list Dnevnik.

Brisel očekuje od Sofije i da otpusti iz Vlade nekoliko visokorangiranih zvaničnika za koje se pokazalo da su nesposobni da rade sa Briselom.

Evropska komisija će u junu objaviti Izvještaj o Bugarskoj i Rumuniji. Zavisno od progresa, sankcije bi mogle biti nametnute objema zemljama.


http://www.ceap-montenegro.com/readarticle.php?article_id=45

Austrijska ministarska inostranih poslova Ursula Plasnik i nemački predsednik Horst Keler uputili su početkom aprila zvanične primedbe svojim hrvatskim kolegama, ministru inostranih poslova Gordanu Jandrokoviću i predsedniku Stipi Mesiću, povodom ogromnih birokratskih prepreka sa kojima se njihove poslovne zajednice suočavaju u Hrvatskoj.

Ta dva zvanična protesta posebno su zabrinjavajuća, jer su Austrija i Nemačka najveći strani investitori u zemlji. Tokom sastanka sa Jandrokovićem u martu, Plasnik je, kako je izvešteno, najveći deo vremena objašnjavala detalje o birokratiji i korupciji sa kojom su susreću austrijski poslovni ljudi u Hrvatskoj.

On je obećao da će vlada unaprediti situaciju aktivno se boreći protiv korupcije i rasplićući komplikovanu birokratiju, s obzirom da više stotina austrijskih i nemačkih kompanija posluje u svim industrijskim sektorima Hrvatske.

Tokom zvanične posete Hrvatskoj prošlog meseca, prve posete jednog predsednika Nemačke od kada je ta balkanska zemlja stekla nezavisnost, Keler je pohvalio političke odnose između dve zemlje, ali se takođe osvrnuo na ekonomske probleme.

"Ekonomija je ono na šta treba da se usredsredimo u budućnosti. Verujem da će hrvatske institucije nastaviti da ulažu napore u pravcu promena, kako bi ti problemi mogli da se reše", rekao je Keler. Austrijski i nemački zvaničnici odbili su da imenuju kompanije ili rukovodioce kompanija koji su se žalili na poteškoće u Hrvatskoj.

Međutim, Keler je rekao da "nemački biznismeni žele garancije u pogledu vladavine zakona, smanjenje količine nepotrebne papirologije za jednostavne odluke i veću tržišnu konkurentnost u Hrvatskoj. To su prioriteti koji zahtevaju momentalnu pažnju".

"Učinićemo sve što je potrebno da sprovedemo reforme i steknemo članstvo [u EU]", rekao je Mesić posle sastanka sa svojim nemačkim kolegom.

Zvaničnici EU svesni su razočarenja među austrijskim i nemačkim poslovnim rukovodiocima i pažljivo prate reakciju Zagreba. S obzirom da Hrvatska pokušava da se pridruži EU do 2010. godine, Unija će verovatno očekivati ozbiljne napore protiv korupcije i zapaženog nedostatka korporativne transparentnosti.

Kompanija Džonson Metej sa sedištem u Velikoj Britaniji predstavila je u sredu (14. maja) svoj investicioni projekat u Makedoniji vredan 55 miliona evra. Fabrika za proizvodnju automobilskih delova stvoriće 250 novih radnih mesta, a početak njene izgradnje očekuje se za dve do tri nedelje. Očekuje se da će fabrika biti otvorena za godinu dana.

***

MMF upozorava albansku vladu na porast javnog duga i poziva na unapređivanje poslovne klime u toj zemlji. Prema kancelariji MMF-a u Albaniji, vlada bi trebalo da nadzire sve veći strani dug i uspostavi lako primenljiv fiskalni sistem.

***

Turska je u subotu (10. maja) okončala stend-baj program MMF-a, nakon što je bord direktora MMF-a završio finalnu procenu turskog stend-baj kredita u iznosu od 10 milijardi dolara, koji je bio raspoređen na tri godine. Završetak procene omogućava Turskoj da odmah podigne preostalu sumu iz sporazuma, oko 3,65 milijarde dolara.

***

Svetska banka je odobrila tranšu od 100 miliona evra na osnovu Drugog programskog kredita za prilagođavanje, nakon što su hrvatske vlasti ispunile uslove za to. Vlada je uputila parlamentu nacrt zakona o opštem broju registracije kompanija. Ovim zakonom će se odvojeni brojevi kompanija i njihove poreske registracije spojiti u jedinstveni identifikacioni broj.

(Razni izvori – 09/05/08 - 16/05/08)

HRVATSKA – SB – NAGRADA
Hrvatskoj nagrada za najuspješnijeg reformatora

Zagreb, (MINA-BUSINESS) - Hrvatskoj će u srijedu na Njujorškoj berzi (NYSE) biti uručena nagrada za najuspješnijeg evropskog reformatora u prošloj godini, koju dodjeljuje Svjetska banka (SB), najavljeno je iz hrvatskog Ministarstva finansija.

SB je, u svom izvještaju Doing Business 2008., Hrvatsku proglasila prvim najuspješnijim reformatorom u Evropi i drugim u svijetu, prenose hrvatski mediji.

Izvještajem je obuhvaćeno 178 zemalja, rangiranih prema kvalitetu zakona i propisa o poslovanju, kao i njihovog sprovođenja.

Na svečanosti će biti predstavljena rezultati rada deset najuspješnijih svjetskih reformatorskih vlada u prošloj godini, a oni najbolji biće inaugurirani u prestižni Klub reformatora.

Sponzori manifestacije, koja se organizuje drugu godinu zaredom, pored SB su i Međunarodna financijska korporacija (IFC), USAID, kompanije General Electric i JP Morgan, NYSE, Američki savjet za narodno poslovanje (USCIB) i Trgovinsko udruženje za tržišta u nastajanju (EMTA).

NN:GRČKE VLASTI BLOKIRALE SVETOGORSKI MANASTIR ESFIGMEN


NA: Monasi za pravoslavlje ili smrt



PN: Zilotsko bratstvo svetogorskog manastira Esfogmen se godinama suprotstavlja ekumenizmu i modernizaciji u pravoslavlju. - Manastir uživa simpatije i podršku grčkih starokalendaraca koje Grčka pravoslavna crkva , kao i druge pravoslavne crkve, smatra raskolnicima. - Blokiran je i put za Hilandar u neposrednoj blizini.-



SOLUN, 8. juna (Tanjug) - Stotine naoružanih grčkih policajaca blokiralo je su svetogorski manastir Esfogmen, čije se bratstvo već godinama suprotstavlja ekumenizmu i modernizaciji u pravoslavlju odbijajući svaku poslušnost vaseljenskoj Carigradskoj patrijaršiji pod čijom je jurisdikcijom.

Sa morske strane ovog zilotskog manastira, koji je u neposrednoj blizini Hilandara, može se videti ogroman transparent "Pravoslavlje ili smrt", a više od stotinu monaha, koji su se oglasili na samom početku blokade, objavili su telefonske brojeve i elektronske adrese grčkog premijera Kostasa Karamanlisa, regionalnog državnog funkcionera Vasilisa Floridesa i drugih, okrivljujući ih za nastalo stanje.

Prema navodima Verske informativne agencije (VIA) Svete Jelisavete Fjodorovne, grčke vlasti su odlučile da izmeste pobunjene monahe Esfigmena koji su uporište raskola u grčkom pravoslavlju kao zastupnici struje starokalendaraca zilota koji su u Grčkoj prerasli u paralelnu crkvu sa posebnim poglavarom i jerarhijom.

Raskol može da se proširi pa je neophodno, kako je objavilo državno tužilaštvo u Solunu, da se na Atosu "potvrdi vlast Grčke i duhovno vođstvo Vaseljenske patrijaršije", a pobunjeno bratstvo koje huli i anatemiše carigradskog patrijarha Vartolomeja ukloni bez primene sile.

U medijima gotovo da nije ni pomenuta najnovija drama u srcu pravoslavlja na Svetoj Gori iako je, kako navodi VIA, blokada počela još 1. juna kada su prekinute sve komunikacije sa manastirom, čijim je žiteljima obustavljeno i dopremanje hrane i lekova.

Zbog prekida telefonskih i internet veza ne zna na koji način odoleva više od stotinu monaha zilota koji su rešili da istraju u odbrani svog viđenja čistog pravoslavlja.

Blokiran je i put za Hilandar u neposrednoj blizini.

Grčke vlasti su poslednjih godina u dva maha pokušale da isele monahe fundamentaliste, a u Solunu kažu da će ovog put taj plan biti i ostvaren.

Pretpostavlja se da su monasi, očekujući blokadu, pripremili veće zalihe hrane pa opsada može trajati duže nego što se pretpostavljalo.

U pravoslavnom svetu i pomesnim pravoslavnim crkvama nema reakcija na ova dramatčna događanja i, do sada, niko nije izrazio solidarnost sa monasima zilotima, ali ni osudio blokadu od strane grčkih vlasti.

Carigradska patrijarši za sada nije zvanično reagovala na ove događaje iako se zna da je patrijarh Vartolomej nedavno posetio Atinu i tom prilikom na najvišem nivou zatražio uklanjanje neposušnog bratstva koje predvodi iguman Metodije.

Formirano je, kako se saznaje, novo bratstvo za manastir Esfigmen na čelu sa igumanom Hrizostomom.

Bratstvo zilotskog Esfigmena već decenijama optužuje Carigradsku patrijaršiju da je postala žrtva ekumenizma i modernizma i da je time pala u najdublju jeres.

Esfigmen kao centar suprotstavljnja ekumenizmu ne odobrava bilo kakva međuhrišćanska susretanja sa rimokatolicima i protestantima, a antemiše i Svetski savet crkava sve to ocenjujuci kao "izdaju pravoslavlja".

Članovi bratstva, iako su u obavezi da u molitvi pomenu nadležnog arhijereja, patrijarha Vartolomeja, to ne čine smatrajući ga jeretikom i otpadnikom od čiste vere.

U hijerarhiji 20 svetogorskih manastira Esfigmen je na 18. mestu, ali nikada nije bio zastupljen u upravi, protatu monaške države.

Manastir je osnovan u periodu pre podele hrišćanskih crkava, a prvi put se pominje u zapisima iz 1045. godine.

Manastir uživa simpatije i podršku grčkih starokalendaraca koje Grčka pravoslavna crkva, kao i druge pravoslavne crkve, smatra raskolnicima.

Grčka vlada, čijoj teritoriji pripada čitava Sveta Gora atonska, smatra članove bratstva u Esfigmenu fundamentalistima koji remete poredak i protive se legalnoj jerarhiji.



Gordana Gutović


Kakva je to drzava ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

INTERNATIONAL: Oil prices on Friday jumped 10.75 dollars -- their largest ever one-day rise -- for a new nominal record of 138.54 dollars a barrel. After a week of moderating prices, the climb was linked explicitly to a sharp decline in the dollar and renewed threat of output disruption in the Middle East. This has reinvigorated fears of a global oil price shock -- already up 44% this year, high prices have hit hard the airline and auto sectors and are now cutting into consumer spending, particularly in the United States -- and reawakened tensions between oil exporters and consuming countries. OPEC in particular, which has not raised its production targets since last autumn, has been targeted for its perceived inaction; G8 Ministers yesterday issued a joint communique calling on oil producers to lift output. However, it is questionable whether the cartel's nations have the spare capacity to bring enough oil onto the market to dampen prices. Meanwhile, OPEC has countered that market volatility demonstrates that prices reflect speculative irrationality more so than supply-side realities. These concerns are being borne out in the United States, as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will this week host international energy regulators in Washington to discuss ways "to detect and deter manipulation in the global energy markets". Soaring oil prices have intensified debates over the relationship between energy prices and commodity speculation, with the latest rises likely to galvanise regulators to take action.

Broj siromašnih u Srbiji prošle godine bio je duplo manji nego 2002. godine, ali još oko 490.000 ljudi živi ispod granice siromaštva, s mesečnim primanjima 8.883 dinara, rekao je u sredu direktor Zavoda za statistiku Dragan Vukmirović. Na promociji Studije o životnom standardu - Srbija 2002-2007. godine, koja je rađena u organizaciji Republičkog zavoda za statistiku i Svetske banke, on je kazao da je procenat siromaštva sa 14 odsto u 2002. godini smanjen na 6,6 odsto u 2007. godini, što čini oko pola miliona stanovnika Srbije. On je kazao da je posebno romsko stanovništvo u nepovoljnom ekonomskom i socijalnom položaju, kao i osobe sa invaliditetom, i naveo da je skoro polovina Roma u zemlji siromašna - (49,2) odsto.
Bravo Crna Goro!!! Mi smo bolji od Srbije... Kod nas je siromašno manje ljudi, neđe oko 450.000 - 470.000 :D

Unija ukinula sankcije Kubi (http://www.ceap-montenegro.com/news.php?readmore=199)

http://www.ceap-montenegro.com/themes/Transverse/images/bullet.gif 20/06/2008 16:25
http://www.ceap-montenegro.com/images/news/FereroWWW.jpg
Brisel - Članice Evropske unije odlučile su da ukinu sankcije Kubi, prenijele su danas agencije.

Zvaničnici Unije žele na ovaj način da ohrabre promjene u zemlji pošto je čelnu funkciju preuzeo Raul Kastro.

Analitičari procenjuju da je ova odluka više simbolična, pošto su sankcije EU prema ovoj zemlji više diplomatske nego ekonomske. Sjedinjene Američke Države poručuju da odluka Brisela neće uticati na njihovu blokadu Kube.

Na samitu EU u Briselu je usvojen set uslova koji će biti postavljeni Kubi - od oslobađanja političkih zatvorenika i slobodnog pristupa građana Internetu do zahtjeva da delegacije Evropske unije koje dolaze na ostrvo mogu da se slobodno sastaju i sa predstavnicima vlade i sa pripadnicima opozicije.

"Članice EU saglasile su se da ukinu sankcije Kubi", rekla je komesarka Unije za unutrašnje odnose Benita Ferero-Valdner.

"Da, sankcije Kubi će biti ukinute, ali će u isto vrijeme biti jasno rečeno šta Kubanci još treba da učine. Mislim naravno na oslobađanje zatvorenika i istinski rad na pitanjima ljudskih prava", kaže Benita Ferero-Valdner.

"Postojaće neka vrsta procjene kako bi se vidjelo da li se zaista nešto promijenilo. Ovo je veoma važno jer želimo da ohrabrimo promjene na Kubi", kaže ona.

Neke države EU, među kojima su Češka i Švedska, nisu bile voljne da se ukinu diplomatske sankcije, uz obrazloženje da žele da prvo vide da je Kuba poboljšala stanje ljudskih prava.

Sjedinjene Američke Države su poručile da briselska odluka neće uticati na njihov odnos prema ovoj ostrvskoj zemlji, koja je već 50 godina pod blokadom Vašingtona.

"Naša politika je dobro poznata. Mi želimo da vidimo stvarne promjene na Kubi, a to podrazumijeva oslobađanje političkih zatvorenika, demokratsko otvaranje zemlje i slobodne i poštene izbore na kojima će Kubanci moći da izaberu svoje rukovodstvo", rekao je portparol Stejt departmenta Tom Kejsi.

EU uvela je sankcije Kubi poslije hapšenja neistomišljenika 2003. u toj zemlji, koje su podrazumijevale i zamrzavanje posjeta visokih evropskih zvaničnika.

Sankcije su suspendovane 2005. godine, a njihovo puno ukidanje uslovljeno je reformama koje je počeo da sprovodi novi kubanski predsjednik Raul Kastro, koji je svog brata, dugogodišnjeg lidera Kube Fidela Kastra zamijenio u februaru.

EURO-AREA: Inflation may reach 4% year-on-year in June

Euro-area annual inflation is expected to reach 4.0% in June according to first estimates released by Eurostat today. If confirmed, this will be the highest level since records began in 1997 and is well above the European Central Bank's (ECB) threshold of 2.0%. The estimate is based on data from nine of the 15 euro-area members and seen as accurate, with the previous 24 estimates never deviating more than by 0.1 percentage points. When inflation reached a record high of 3.7% year-on-year in May, the ECB warned that interest rates would increase. Over the weekend, policymakers across the euro-area, particularly in Spain, Germany and France, have ratcheted up their criticism of the ECB's expected rate hike as economic growth slows. However, given the ECB's narrow mandate to monitor price stability, this new data adds weight to the expectation that the ECB will raise interest rates by 25 basis points from
4.0% to 4.25% later this week as it tries to dampen rising inflation.

NA POČETKU PREDSJEDAVANJA EU FRANCUSKA SUOČENA SA PROBLEMIMA, POLJSKI PREDSJEDNIK NEĆE DA POTPIŠE RATIFIKOVANI LISABONSKI SPORAZUM

Brisel/Pariz (Beta/B92/FoNet) - Francuska je juče preuzela predsjedavanje Evropskom unijom, stavljajući jasno do znanja da je "u interesu Evrope da se proširi na Balkan", ali i da se "ne može proširivati i rušiti Evropa".

Predsjednik Francuske Nikola Sarkozi kazao je da Francuska želi Balkan u EU, ali da ne dolazi u obzir proširenje dok EU ne riješi svoje institucionalne probleme. Francuska želi da zemlje Balkana uđu u EU, izjavio je Sarkozi, navodeći da neuspjeh Lisabonskog ugovora odlaže to pitanje dok ne bude riješena institucionalna kriza unutar bloka 27 zemalja članica. Sarkozi kaže da to znači i privremeno blokiranje pristupa Hrvatskoj, koja je u statusu kandidata.“Ne dolazi u obzir da nastavljamo proširenje Unije prije nego što budemo u stanju da uspostavimo odgovarajuće institucije. To smo uradili sa uključivanjem zemalja Istočnog bloka, i to je bila velika greška. Ja sam za proširenje ka istoku, ali prije toga moramo da reformišemo institucije“, kazao je Sarkozi. Na pitanje novinara da li to znači blokadu pristupa Hrvatskoj, francuski predsjednik je odgovorio potvrdno. "Ja želim da primimo Hrvatsku i, prema tome, nužan je Lisabon", predočio je Sarkozi.

U sjedištu EU u Briselu juče je veliku pažnju izazvalo i saopštenje poljskog predsjednika Leha Kačinjskog da on neće potpisati odluku poljskog parlamenta o rafitikaciji Lisabonskog ugovora, zato što ga smatra "bespredmetnim". Poljski predsjednik je to izjavio u intervjuu za list "Djenjik" i dodao da je poslije odbacivanja sporazuma na irskom referendumu Lisabonski ugovor mrtav, iako ga je već usvojio poljski parlament. Portparol Evropske komisije Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen juče je u Briselu podsjetila poljskog predsjednika da je on sam bio jedan od glavnih aktera pregovora o Lisabonskom sporazumu i zatražila da se proces ratifikacije u državama EU nastavi, bez obzira na irsko "ne". Češka takođe oklijeva da rafitikuje taj sporazum, a Sarkozi je upravo prilikom nedavnih posjeta Pragu i Varšavi nastojao da ubijedi tamošnje političare na vlasti da je nužno usvojiti lisabonski dogovor o preustrojstvu ustanova i mehanizama odlučivanja EU. Sarkozi je tada istakao da samo tako može da se ide na prijem novih članica u EU, za šta se zalažu Češka i Poljska, a, paradoksalno, koče usvajanje Lisabonskog sporazuma koji to omogućava.

Njemački predsjednik Horst Keler izjavio je da će Njemačka sačekati sa ratifikovanjem Lisabonskog ugovora dok visoki sud te zemlje ne potvrdi njegovu ustavnost. U Gornjem i Donjem domu njemačkog parlamenta odobrena je odluka o usvajanju Lisabonskog ugovora, ali se još čeka potpis predsjednika kako bi odluka parlamenta mogla da bude formalno ratifikovana. Iako u Njemačkoj postoji velika podrška tom ugovoru, bavarski političar konzervativne stranke Peter Gauveler, kao i pripadnici ljevice, uložili su molbu Ustavnom sudu jer, kako su rekli, "ugovor nije kompatibilan sa njemačkim demokratskim principima". Ustavni sud trebalo bi da donese odluku na jesen, a neki eksperti smatraju da će ga proglasiti neustavnim.

Fighting Inflation, Europeans Raise Rate

FRANKFURT — For the European Central Bank, dedicated to slaying the dragon of inflation, the moment of truth arrived Thursday. The bank raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25 percent, making good on a promise last month that it would act to curb food and fuel prices.
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Economic Problems in Britain Mimic Those in U.S. (July 4, 2008)

But with Europe’s economy slowing, the bank stopped well short of signaling the beginning of a new round of rate increases, as a lot of bank watchers had expected. “Starting from here, I have no bias,” the bank’s president, Jean-Claude Trichet, declared at a news conference here.

Mr. Trichet’s measured words soothed markets, helped halt a slide in the dollar against the euro, and may have mollified European leaders worrying that higher exchange rates could choke their weakening economy.

The bank’s decision to tighten credit has been watched, and debated, as much as any in its 10-year history because it comes just as economic growth appears to be deteriorating in Europe. It also widens the gulf in monetary policy between Europe and the United States, where the number of jobs declined for the sixth straight month in June.

The Federal Reserve, with interest rates half those in Europe, has so far not raised them, though it has indicated that inflation is a growing concern. Other central banks, from Scandinavia to Southeast Asia, lifted rates this week to combat a global wave of inflation.

“The E.C.B. is the only major central bank that is joining the smaller central banks in raising rates,” said Thomas Mayer, the chief European economist at Deutsche Bank in London. “The others are talking tough but the E.C.B. is the only one that is putting action to words.”

This has put the bank in an awkward position. Politicians in France and Germany urged it not to raise rates at such a fragile moment. Even within the bank’s 21-member governing council, there was a raging debate about whether to act now or hold off, to avoid jeopardizing growth.

The latest statistics, which showed inflation in Europe spiking to 4 percent in June — twice the upper limit set by the bank — seems to have settled the debate for the moment, according to economists. Mr. Trichet said the vote to raise rates a quarter point was unanimous.

Underlining the argument that the move was more of a one-time gesture than the beginning of a trend, he repeated a warning to unions not to use inflation as a pretext to demand steep wage increases. The bank frets as much about so-called second-round effects as it does about inflation itself, according to economists.

“They’ve really gotten everyone’s attention,” said Holger Schmieding, chief European economist at Bank of America. “Trade unions, governments, and others know the bank is dead serious.”

Politicians were muted about the rate increase, after days of noisy public pressure on the bank from President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, the German finance minister, Peer Steinbrück, and other leaders.

But unions reacted sourly, disputing that inflation could start a wage-price spiral. “The E.C.B. should realize we are no longer living in the ’70s,” the European Trade Union Federation said in a statement.

While Mr. Trichet reiterated that the central bank’s overriding mandate was to manage expectations about inflation, he also acknowledged that the economic picture in Europe was worsening.

Manufacturing activity in the 15 countries that use the euro shrank in June for the first time in three years, according to a survey of European purchasing managers. In Spain and Ireland, where a collapse in housing prices has magnified the problems, there is real risk of a recession.

Europe’s growth this year, Mr. Trichet conceded, would be “not at all flattering,” though he disputed suggestions that it faces stagflation similar to what occurred after the oil shock of the 1970s.

With Europe likely to slow further in coming months, however, economists said that the inflation hawks on the bank’s governing council — led by Axel Weber, the president of Germany’s Bundesbank — would find it difficult to round up votes for more than one additional rate increase this year.

“We still think there is a need to hike further,” said Elga Bartsch, senior European economist at Morgan Stanley in London. “But given what I heard today, there won’t be any rush to do it.”

On a day when oil prices surged to a record above $145 a barrel, Mr. Trichet devoted a lot of attention to energy markets. He said European consumers needed to accept the reality of higher fuel prices, but he also issued a warning to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries not to hoard supplies.

“If we have a supplier-driven artificial scarcity, then it is very grave,” Mr. Trichet said. “To the extent that part of the present prices are coming from a cartel, this is very, very abnormal.”

Wading into a subject that is politically contentious in the United States, Mr. Trichet also urged industrialized countries not to hinder drilling and other types of exploration for oil. He declined to name the countries he had in mind, saying this was an issue in several of them.

The Bush administration has pushed for offshore drilling, as has the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, Senator John McCain. Mr. Trichet met on Tuesday with the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., prompting speculation that the issue might have come up in that session.

Mr. Trichet dwelled on oil in part because it allowed him to make a historical point about the need to fight inflation.

Europe’s failure to respond more quickly to the spiraling prices that followed the first oil shock of 1973, he said, sapped the Continent of its economic vitality and ability to create jobs for years afterward.

NATO baza u Maslinama

Osim na Kosovu, NATO već ima nekoliko baza u ovom dijelu regiona, od kojih se za potrebe mirovnih operacije najčešće koriste one u Tuzli u Bosni i Hercegovini i na sjeveru Albanije...

http://www.vijesti.cg.yu/_slike/1216249217.jpg (http://www.vijesti.cg.yu/index.php?id=275778)

ovo je strasno.
mada i u Sloveniji, iako je bilo dogovoreno da se baze ne otvaraju tamo prilikom ulaska u NATO - pocinju isto...

samo da je ne postave na trg, pa sto god oce

Eurozone swings closer to economic recession
LUCIA KUBOSOVA

15.08.2008 @ 09:31 CET

The eurozone's economy has slipped further towards recession, with fresh output figures pointing to an economic downturn in the 15-strong zone as well as in the whole of the European Union, while inflation remains at a record high.

According to early predictions by Eurostat, the EU's statistical office, gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro area dropped by 0.2 percent during the second quarter of 2008. This makes it the very first time that the monetary bloc's economy declined since the launch of euro.


Europe's economy is shrinking while prices remain at record highs (Photo: European Commission)
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Similarly, the GDP for the whole of the EU shrank by 0.1 percent during the same period, with the worst performance recorded in the Baltic states of Estonia and Latvia.

The gloomy forecasts – published on Thursday (14 August) - have reinforced concerns about the European economy moving closer to recession, with both Germany and France as the two biggest countries showing signals of an economic slow-down.

The German economy dropped by 0.5 percent - which was less than analysts had predicted – while France's shrunk by 0.3 percent.

Amelia Torres, European Commission spokeswoman for economic and monetary affairs, refused to speculate on recession fears and suggested that the latest figures were of no surprise to the EU executive, referring to unexpectedly high growth rates in the first quarter of 2008.

"I think it's a bit exaggerated to use that word," she told reporters in Brussels. But she admitted that "the signs are not really very good for the future".

According to eurozone figures, no eurozone country is yet officially in recession – seen as two consecutive quarters of economic decline – but within the whole of the EU, Estonia has officially slipped in recession.

Along with the declining growth, inflation in the eurozone remained at a record high of 4 percent in July, unchanged from June. A year earlier the rate was 1.8 percent

Zapadni Balkan kolektivno u EU
DIO POSLANIKA EP-a U PREDLOGU REZOLUCIJE O PROŠIRENjU UNIJE


~ EK da pomogne crnogorskoj vlasti u jačanju saradnje sa zemljama u okruženju na polju energije, zaštite životne sredine i transporta
Kolektivni pristup država zapadnog Balkana Evropskoj Uniji ne bi bio dodatni politički ali ni finansijski teret pri sadašnjem okviru koji se izdvaja za politiku svih 27 članica prema regionima koje treba uključiti u zajednicu, procijenjeno je u predlogu nove rezolucije Evropskog parlamenta o daljem proširenju.
U tekstu dostupnom "Danu", kojeg je prije ljetnje pauze izradila grupa evropskih poslanika iz spoljnopolitičkog komiteta EP-a, navodi se da regionalna saradnja može biti odličan preduslov za rješavanje problema koje zapadni Balkan danas ima. Crna Gora, Srbija, Bosna i Hercegovina, Albanija i Makedonija su zemlje koje oficijelni Brisel definiše kao "zapadni Balkan".
- Sugerišemo Evropskoj komisiji da potencira jedinstvene tranzicione reforme viđene u zemljama koje su Uniji pristupile u 21 vijeku, i tako izradi nove mehanizme koji će biti od koristi Crnoj Gori - navedeno je u ponuđenoj rezoluciji koja se tiče novih planova za širenje.
EP bi, prema tome, pozdravio pristup Crne Gore centralno-evropskom savezu za slobodnu trgovinu (CEFTA) "što će značajno doprinijeti ekonomskom razvoju u zemlji".
- Pozivamo EK da pomogne crnogorskoj vlasti u jačanju saradnje sa zemljama u okruženju na polju energije, zaštite životne sredine i transporta, jer politički, ekonomski i socijalni problemi mogu biti riješeni saradnjom na nivou regiona - piše u predlogu rezolucije EP-a.
Pozdravljaju se i mehanizmi koje je EK predložila u komunikeu od 5.marta i najavljena liberalizacija viznog režima sa državama zapadnog Balkana što će dovesti i do konačnog ukidanja viza za građane koji putuju u zemlje Unije. Pozitivno se ocjenjuje i proces stabilizacije i pridruživanja u regionu.
U predlogu ove, kao i u Rezoluciji koja je usvojena 10. jula na sjednici u Strazburu, a koja je bila odgovor na strategiju proširenja EK, poručuje se da je integracija moguća samo ako za to ima javne podrške u zemljama Unije i državama koje žele da joj pristupe.
- Podsjećamo vlade, i članica, i zemalja koje hoće da se uključe da redovno izvještavaju javnost o pozitivnim efektima ranijih proširenja, perspektiva članstva mora biti stalna i nedvosmislena za sve - ocjenjuje se u predloženom tekstu.
Politički analitičar, Dragiša Janjušević, kaže da princip da države pristupe EU zajedno ne treba nikog da čudi s obzirom na ukupnu situaciju u regionu. U Crnoj Gori, milimetarski hod kojim se krećemo ka Uniji najviše pogoduje vladajućoj političkoj eliti, smatra on.
- Poslanik EP-a Elmar Brok govorio je o novim mehanizmima koji bi se mogli primijeniti kada je uključivanje novih država u pitanju. To znači da bi formalno bili član, ali u nekim oblastima odnosa sa EU bili bi i van bloka. Primjer je Norveška koja recimo, nije članica, ali jeste potpisnik šengenskog sporazuma. Brokove inicijative su se, po mom mišljenju, dosta ozbiljno shvatile u Briselu - kaže Janjušević, šef Centra za političku edukaciju i istraživanja.
Suštinska nespremnost da se ispune evropski standardi čine od vlasti strukturu koja želi spori hod ka EU, navodi on, ocjenjujući da problemi sa, organizovanim kriminalom, slobodom medija i korupcijom ne kvalifikuju Crnu Goru za članstvo.
- Bitno je da u Crnoj Gori, što nigdje nijesam zapazio, nemamo nikakvog kritičkog integralizma, a ljudi u EU uviđaju da Evropa iz Mastrihta 1992. godine i ona iz 2007. sa 27 članica, nijesu iste. U ovom trenutku, jako je teško predvidjeti kako će se proces razvijati - zaključuje Janjušević.

M.V.

Odlaganje aplikacije znak neozbiljnosti

Ukoliko se dogodi da se aplikacija za status kandidata u EU opet odloži i pored najave za kraj godine, to bi bio dokaz da je Vlada krajnje neozbiljna u evropskim integracijama, kaže Janjušević.
- Bio bi to dokaz da smo za sve spremni, da budemo i of-šor destinacija ali ne kandidat za članstvo u Uniji. Jednom smo vidjeli kako je bilo odložiti aplikaciju za EU, bojim se da bi novo odlaganje imalo velike posledice za dalju evropski put - ukazuje direktor Centra za politička istraživanja.
Janjušević smatra da još nema naznaka kako će EU riješiti krizu koja je nastala odbijanjem Irske da prihvati reformski Lisabonski ugovor.
- Pošto je iz Vlade poručeno da je izvještaj EK o napretku koji se očekuje u novembru preduslov za aplikaciju, malo je vjerovatno da će odjednom biti super-pozitivan za nas. Prema tome, ako bude vrlo loš, što nije isključeno, šta će onda biti sa aplikacijom - pita se Janjušević.

Ništa novo

To što u EU sada preovlađuje stav da zemlje zapadnog Balkana mogu postati članice u paketu nije novost budući na gotovo istovjetne probleme sa kojima se zemlje regiona suočavaju, zbog čega je prekogranična saradnja jedan od ključnih uslova, kazao je portparol Narodne stranke, Slaviša Guberinić.
- Izgradnja pravne države i institucionalna stabilnost treba da budu prioritet Crne Gore čime bi se nametnula kao stabilan i pouzdan partner, što bi neminovno navelo EU na promjenu stava prema prijemu zemalja zapadnog Balkana - smatra Guberinić.

Balkans model to underpin EU's 'Eastern Partnership'
VALENTINA POP

EU policies applied to the Western Balkans - such as a regional free trade area - are inspiring the "Eastern Partnership" with Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan and "hopefully" Belarus, participants at a conference organized Wednesday (17 September) by the German Konrad Adenauer think-tank learned.


Free trade should be the way to Europe for eastern countries, as in the Balkans (Photo: European Commission)
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Initially a Polish-Swedish proposal endorsed in June by all member states, the Eastern Partnership is designed to deepen ties with the "European neighbours" to the east, balancing the 'Mediterranean Union' with the southern "neighbours of Europe," as Polish MEP Jacek Saryusz-Wolski put it.

The Georgian conflict sped up the process of drafting the eastern policy by the European Commission, with president Jose Manuel Barroso scheduled to sketch out the main features already at the EU summit on 15 October.

"We might be inspired by the experience with the Western Balkans that countries which perhaps didn't work so well together in the past, will do so in specific areas like energy or transport. We should put forward the idea of creating a free trade area between these countries - something which worked quite well in the Balkans," Gunnar Wiegand, director for Eastern Europe, Southern Caucasus and Central Asia within the European Commission, explained.

The new policy will consist of a bilateral dimension and a multilateral one, the latter being "really new," in addition to existing cooperation mechanisms, he said.

"There would be something fundamentally new if we would create some form of regular political dialogue at the highest level between the 27 and the five, hopefully the six countries in a not too distant future," Mr Wiegand said, referring to Belarus as the potential sixth country.

Speeding up or initiating visa facilitation agreements was an idea championed by the Polish and Swedish speakers, who stressed that it is easier for South Ossetians and Abkhazians with a Russian passport to travel to Europe than it is for someone with a Georgian passport.

But the commission official mentioned the "substantial political resistance from some member countries" on a future visa facilitation agreement with Ukraine, while underlining that EU-Ukraine negotiations on an "Association Agreement" was an important "example" to follow for the other countries of the Eastern Partnership.

Regarding the other EU co-operation platform in the region, the Black Sea Synergy, which includes Turkey and Russia, Mr Wiegand said that "there will have to be a choice whether one wants to establish a good form of this multilateral process or whether one wants to use existing mechanisms where also other players continue to have a role."

Mr Saryusz-Wolski, the chairman of the European Parliament's foreign affairs committee, warned that "the problem is not what to put in the Eastern Partnership, but how to implement the available instruments." He stressed the need for benchmarks, individual evaluation of each country and called for appropriate funding, the current envelope of €2 billion for the entire EU neighbourhood policy - which also includes the southern Mediterranean rim - being "insufficient."

Speaking of other frozen conflicts such as Transnistria and Nagorno Karabakh in the light of the events in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Mr Wolski underlined the need for the EU to "anticipate," not just to "react," for instance by helping Ukraine's majority-Russian region of Crimea with better infrastructure and other "pragamatic" solutions.

Accession after 2020

With the perspective of EU membership for the partnership countries set out in "10-15 years," the focus should be on "doing something now" and helping the countries to establish strong institutions, rule of law and a functioning market economy, German MEP Elmar Brok said.

Mr Brok, who used to be Mr Wolski's predecessor as the chairman of the foreign affairs committee, was presented as a "forefather" of the Eastern Partnership, as he championed a similar idea three years ago, called the "Neighbourhood Policy Plus" for the same group of countries.

"We need to have a step by step approach. Visa facilitation is important, WTO, gradually passing from an association agreement to a free trade area. It means to go further as far as possible in terms of these countries adopting the aquis communautaire, rather than focusing on the membership perspective, which is too distant," he said.

Despite ongoing disputes over Christian and other religious minorities in
Turkey, the world's leading Orthodox prelate, the Ecumenical Patriarch
Bartholomew I of Constantinople, has endorsed Turkey's bid to join the
European Union and appealed to Brussels not to make religious or cultural
differences an obstacle to membership.

http://euobserver.com/9/26800/?rk=1

SAVJET EVROPSKE UNIJE U NOVOJ BEZBJEDNOSNOJ STUDIJI O BALKANU UPOZORIO NA KRIMINAL U CRNOJ GORI

Kolumbijski kokain preko naših luka

~Upotreba droge, pogotovo ekstazija, raste tokom ljetnje turistièke sezone
~Policiji nedostaje opreme za efikasniju borbu protiv narko-kriminala

Crnogorske luke su važan tranzitni prolaz za šverc kokaina iz Latinske Amerike, preko Balkana dalje u zapadnoevropske zemlje. Osim toga, u Crnoj Gori lokalno narko-tržište je malo ali kolièina droge, posebno ekstazija raste tokom ljetnje turistièke sezone, navedeno je u studiji o bezbjednosti na zapadnom Balkanu koju je nedavno uradio Generalni sektarijat Savjeta Evropske Unije.
U internom dokumentu, dostupnom "Danu", Savjet EU kao i prošle godine preporuèuje vlastima Crne Gore da saraðuju sa meðunarodnim institucijama na Kosovu kako bi se izborili sa kriminalnim aktivnostima na granici.
Autori navode podatke dobijene od crnogorskih vlasti da policiji i dalje nedostaje opreme za efikasniju borbu protiv narko-kriminala, ali i da je u prethodnom periodu zabilježen napredak.
- Crnogorska vlast treba da pojaèa kampanju u javnosti protiv upotrebe droge i organizovanog kriminala, u saradnji sa lokalnim partnerima, a pogotovo u školama - ocjenjuje se u studiji SE koja tretira i stanje u ostalim zemljama zapadnog Balkana, kandidatima ili potencijalnim kandidatima za èlanstvo u EU.
Vlastima u Crnoj Gori nedostaje opreme za praæenje, hapšenje, ali i tajno nadziranje osumnjièenih lica. Edukacija policijskom osoblju koje je zaduženo za borbu protiv droge takoðe je potrebna, piše u dokumentu koji je raðen za potrebe evropske bezbjednosne politike.
U opštim osvrtima, izvještaj navodi da zemlje Balkana èine tranzitnu zonu za šverc heroina, takoðe na podruèje zapadne Evrope.
- Sve zemlje zapadnog Balkana, Crna Gora, Srbija, BiH, Makedonija i Albanija suoèavaju se sa znaèajnim nivoom organizovanog kriminala, od èega je šverc droge najznaèajniji element. Organizovani kriminal je podržan i korupcijom, koja je veoma rasprostranjena širom regiona. Posebnu teškoæu predstavlja to što borbu protiv narko-kriminala veoma èesto uslovljavaju unutrašnje politièke, društvene, ali i ekonomske teškoæe - navodi se u dokumentu Savjeta EU.
U izvještaju dominiraju podaci o Albaniji i Kosovu gdje, kako je navedeno, albanski organizovani kriminal nastavlja da svojim djelatnostima ugrožava bezbjednost zemalja EU. Studija SE nije prvi osvrt na upotrebu crnogorskih luka za šverc kokaina iz Južne Amerike dalje u Evropu, jer su to ove godine notirali i amerièko ministarstvo inostranih poslova i Kancelarija Ujedinjenih nacija za drogu i kriminal.
Stejt dipartment je u martu objavio da Crna Gora služi kao tranzit za šverc kokaina iz Južne Amerike, a organizovane kriminalne grupe koriste njenu teritoriju i za šverc kanabisa iz Albanije i Kosova. UN su u januaru izvijestile da crnogorske luke koristi albanska mafija za šverc kokaina u evropske zemlje.

M.VEŠOVIÆ

Ministri upozorili na šverc

Savjet EU, odnosno ministri zemalja èlanica, osmog jula ove godine donijeli su zakljuèke o organizovanom kriminalu na zapadnom Balkanu u kojima su, bez rasprave, ocijenili da je region jedan od glavnih puteva preko kojih droga iz Azije ulazi u EU.
- Region se smatra i za izvor šverca oružja. Radi se o kolièinama koje su zaostale iz ratnih konflikata tokom 90-ih godina, a od kojih je najveæi dio sada na "crnom tržištu". Zabrinuti smo zbog nedostatka kontrole nad eksplozivnim materijama pohranjenim u vojnim skladištima i prostorijama privatnih kompanija – navedeno je u julskim zakljuècima Savjeta EU.

Statistika o narkomanima neprecizna

Upotreba kanabisa je popularna u Crnoj Gori, ocjenjuje se u izvještaju Savjeta EU, dok posljednjih godina sve veæe tržište dobija i heroin.
- Postoji rast korisnika sintetièkih droga, dok konzumiranje koakina još nije na problematiènom nivou, uglavnom zbog visoke cijene. Mada, u nekim državama zapadnog Balkana izgleda da je i to u porastu - piše u izvještaju.
Statistika o broju zavisnika od droge u Crnoj Gori je, kao i u drugim zemljama regiona, daleko je od precizne.
- Nema adekvatnog tretmana narkomana, kao ni medicinskih ustanova za njihovo lijeèenje - zakljuèuje se u studiji Savjeta Evropske Unije.

SAVJET EVROPSKE UNIJE U NOVOJ BEZBJEDNOSNOJ STUDIJI O BALKANU UPOZORIO NA KRIMINAL U CRNOJ GORI

Kolumbijski kokain preko naših luka

~Upotreba droge, pogotovo ekstazija, raste tokom ljetnje turistièke sezone
~Policiji nedostaje opreme za efikasniju borbu protiv narko-kriminala

Crnogorske luke su važan tranzitni prolaz za šverc kokaina iz Latinske Amerike, preko Balkana dalje u zapadnoevropske zemlje. Osim toga, u Crnoj Gori lokalno narko-tržište je malo ali kolièina droge, posebno ekstazija raste tokom ljetnje turistièke sezone, navedeno je u studiji o bezbjednosti na zapadnom Balkanu koju je nedavno uradio Generalni sektarijat Savjeta Evropske Unije.
U internom dokumentu, dostupnom "Danu", Savjet EU kao i prošle godine preporuèuje vlastima Crne Gore da saraðuju sa meðunarodnim institucijama na Kosovu kako bi se izborili sa kriminalnim aktivnostima na granici.
Autori navode podatke dobijene od crnogorskih vlasti da policiji i dalje nedostaje opreme za efikasniju borbu protiv narko-kriminala, ali i da je u prethodnom periodu zabilježen napredak.
- Crnogorska vlast treba da pojaèa kampanju u javnosti protiv upotrebe droge i organizovanog kriminala, u saradnji sa lokalnim partnerima, a pogotovo u školama - ocjenjuje se u studiji SE koja tretira i stanje u ostalim zemljama zapadnog Balkana, kandidatima ili potencijalnim kandidatima za èlanstvo u EU.
Vlastima u Crnoj Gori nedostaje opreme za praæenje, hapšenje, ali i tajno nadziranje osumnjièenih lica. Edukacija policijskom osoblju koje je zaduženo za borbu protiv droge takoðe je potrebna, piše u dokumentu koji je raðen za potrebe evropske bezbjednosne politike.
U opštim osvrtima, izvještaj navodi da zemlje Balkana èine tranzitnu zonu za šverc heroina, takoðe na podruèje zapadne Evrope.
- Sve zemlje zapadnog Balkana, Crna Gora, Srbija, BiH, Makedonija i Albanija suoèavaju se sa znaèajnim nivoom organizovanog kriminala, od èega je šverc droge najznaèajniji element. Organizovani kriminal je podržan i korupcijom, koja je veoma rasprostranjena širom regiona. Posebnu teškoæu predstavlja to što borbu protiv narko-kriminala veoma èesto uslovljavaju unutrašnje politièke, društvene, ali i ekonomske teškoæe - navodi se u dokumentu Savjeta EU.
U izvještaju dominiraju podaci o Albaniji i Kosovu gdje, kako je navedeno, albanski organizovani kriminal nastavlja da svojim djelatnostima ugrožava bezbjednost zemalja EU. Studija SE nije prvi osvrt na upotrebu crnogorskih luka za šverc kokaina iz Južne Amerike dalje u Evropu, jer su to ove godine notirali i amerièko ministarstvo inostranih poslova i Kancelarija Ujedinjenih nacija za drogu i kriminal.
Stejt dipartment je u martu objavio da Crna Gora služi kao tranzit za šverc kokaina iz Južne Amerike, a organizovane kriminalne grupe koriste njenu teritoriju i za šverc kanabisa iz Albanije i Kosova. UN su u januaru izvijestile da crnogorske luke koristi albanska mafija za šverc kokaina u evropske zemlje.

M.VEŠOVIÆ

Ministri upozorili na šverc

Savjet EU, odnosno ministri zemalja èlanica, osmog jula ove godine donijeli su zakljuèke o organizovanom kriminalu na zapadnom Balkanu u kojima su, bez rasprave, ocijenili da je region jedan od glavnih puteva preko kojih droga iz Azije ulazi u EU.
- Region se smatra i za izvor šverca oružja. Radi se o kolièinama koje su zaostale iz ratnih konflikata tokom 90-ih godina, a od kojih je najveæi dio sada na "crnom tržištu". Zabrinuti smo zbog nedostatka kontrole nad eksplozivnim materijama pohranjenim u vojnim skladištima i prostorijama privatnih kompanija – navedeno je u julskim zakljuècima Savjeta EU.

Statistika o narkomanima neprecizna

Upotreba kanabisa je popularna u Crnoj Gori, ocjenjuje se u izvještaju Savjeta EU, dok posljednjih godina sve veæe tržište dobija i heroin.
- Postoji rast korisnika sintetièkih droga, dok konzumiranje koakina još nije na problematiènom nivou, uglavnom zbog visoke cijene. Mada, u nekim državama zapadnog Balkana izgleda da je i to u porastu - piše u izvještaju.
Statistika o broju zavisnika od droge u Crnoj Gori je, kao i u drugim zemljama regiona, daleko je od precizne.
- Nema adekvatnog tretmana narkomana, kao ni medicinskih ustanova za njihovo lijeèenje - zakljuèuje se u studiji Savjeta Evropske Unije.

cudi me to od nase postene i napredne omladine.
sta ti je hajducka krv, mladi, zdravi, zeljni zivota, a zive u crnoj gori- jedini ventil je materijalizacija hrabrosti i ludosti- sverc za velike pare. zali boze generacije koje su stasale za tu i takvu ekonomiju, dok su se oni sto su se 'snasli' ubacili u cistije rabote.

GERMANY: Falling exports exacerbate economic slowdown
GERMANY: German exports declined for a second consecutive month in August, according to provisional data released by the Federal Statistics Office today. While exports had declined in July by 1.7% month-on-month, they were still up by 6.9% compared to July 2007. However, in August exports were down compared to both the previous month (-0.5%) and the previous year (-2.5%). The sharpest annual drop in five years is largely attributed to the strong euro and falling demand in Germany's key export markets, with non-EU exports falling by 4.4%year-on-year. At the same time, imports increased by 2.6% year-on-year -- but decreased by 2.5% month-on-month -- causing the trade surplus to narrow from 14.3 billion euros (19.6 billion dollars) to 10.6 billion euros over the past twelve months; the strong trade surplus is also crucial for the EU's generally healthy trade balance. Germany's economy is heavily reliant on exports as domestic demand is traditionally weak. With external demand, especially in Germany's key markets, expected to decline further in the current economic climate, and domestic consumption unlikely to pick up during the current downturn, the German economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable to a recession, with serious implications for the euro-area as well.

Iceland's fisheries minister and foreign minister have said that the
country's severe financial crisis could force them to join the European
Union. Meanwhile, analysts worry that the West's snub of Iceland when it
turned to them cap in hand has inadvertently benefited Russian designs in
the north Atlantic

Macedonia does not seem ready at this stage to open accession talks with
the EU before the end of the year, as initially hoped, EU enlargement
commissioner Olli Rehn has said.

http://euobserver.com/9/26964/?rk=1

"Kriminal inficirao i politku"

20. oktobar 2008. | 08:43 | Izvor: BBC, Tanjug

Beč -- Dugogodišnji novinar britanskog Bi-Bi-Sija Miša Gleni ocenio da je privreda Kosova u potpunosti podrivena kriminalom koji je "inficirao" političku klasu.

"Balkan je region tranzita ilegalnih proizvoda iz 'trećeg' sveta ka Evropi. Bosna, Kosovo, Crna Gora i Makedonija imaju najveće probleme s tim. Oni su žrtve političke nestabilnosti", rekao je Gleni, autor knjige "Mek mafija", u razgovoru za bečki dnevni list "Kurir".

Britanski novinar je ocenio da "Evropskoj uniji i Ujedinjenim nacijama nedostaje svako iskustvo kako ući u neku zemlju s ciljem da se izgradi", ali i da EU ima pozitivan uticaj svojim pritiskom koji vrši na pravosudni sistem i pravosuđe.

"Bilo bi glupo zemlje Balkana držati izvan EU", zaključuje Gleni.

On je ocenio da šengenska zona pojednostavljuje ilegalne poslove, ali da su granice često privlačnije za one koji se bave ilegalnim poslovima jer povećavaju cene proizvoda.

Prema njegovim rečima, moderne kriminalne mreže su decentralizovane i nisu više tako hijerarhijski organizovane, kao, na primer, sicilijanska mafija.

"Nema više sistema kumova sa apsolutnom lojalnošću i porodičnim strukturama. Mreže se formiraju u zavisnosti od proizvoda. Traže se partneri u zavisnosti od toga šta se želi u tom trenutku švercovati", objasnio je Gleni.

Hungary is to receive a record sum of €20 billion in a rescue package agreed to by the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and designed to help Budapest cope with the devastating damage to national finances and the forint caused by the global credit crunch.
http://euobserver.com/9/27009/?rk=1

Croatia could conclude accession negotiations with the EU by the end of next year, if it fulfills the remaining conditions, while Serbia could become an official EU candidate, according to a draft report on the western Balkan countries' progress towards the EU that the European Commission will present next week.

http://euobserver.com/9/27019/?rk=1

In a report on the western Balkan countries' progress towards the EU that the European Commission will present next week, Brussels will reiterate a warning it expressed earlier about Bosnia and Herzegovina's political instability and the lack of reform in the country.

http://euobserver.com/9/27022/?rk=1

Sa bloga http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2008/10/east-european-crisis-may-hit.html

East European Crisis May Hit Overexposed Euro Members

Emerging East European countries are set to become the worst nightmare of Eurozone banks with a heavy exposure to these once so profitable markets. Looking at the share prices of Italian Unicredit or Austrian Erste Bank and Raiffeisen International - all down more than 60% from their record highs seen a year earlier - the worries appear to have a very real background.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offers the saucy details in today's web edition of the Telegraph. After a wave of Eurozone bank insolvencies that lead to a industry concentration through rescue mergers in Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and the UK, it now appears that tiny Austria may be left holding the bucket in Eastern Europe. Lendings to Eastern emerging markets have reached a critical level of 85% of Austria's GDP which is around €240 billion or €32.600 per inhabitant.
According to the Telegraph,

Austria’s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP – with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia – all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund.
Exposure is 50pc of GDP for Switzerland, 25pc for Sweden, 24pc for the UK, and 23pc for Spain. The US figure is just 4pc. America is the staid old lady in this drama.

While the world has so far focused on the US banking crisis, the centre of attention will soon shift to Europe as loans in danger of default dwarf the US losses.

“This is the biggest currency crisis the world has ever seen,” said Neil Mellor, a strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.
Experts fear the mayhem may soon trigger a chain reaction within the eurozone itself. The risk is a surge in capital flight from Austria – the country, as it happens, that set off the global banking collapse of May 1931 when Credit-Anstalt went down – and from a string of Club Med countries that rely on foreign funding to cover huge current account deficits.
The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that Western European banks hold almost all the exposure to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect.
They account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion £2.96 trillion) in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia extended during the global credit boom – a sum that vastly exceeds the scale of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles.

Recent interest rate moves to defend national currencies show the grade of desperation.

Hungary stunned the markets by raising rates 3pc to 11.5pc in a last-ditch attempt to defend the forint’s currency peg in the ERM.
It is just blood in the water for hedge funds sharks, eyeing a long line of currency kills. “The economy is not strong enough to take it, so you know it is unsustainable,” said Simon Derrick, currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon.
Romania raised its overnight lending to 900pc to stem capital flight, recalling the near-crazed gestures by Scandinavia’s central banks in the final days of the 1992 ERM crisis – political moves that turned the Nordic banking crisis into a disaster.
Russia too is in the eye of the storm, despite its energy wealth – or because of it. The cost of insuring Russian sovereign debt through credit default swaps (CDS) surged to 1,200 basis points last week, higher than Iceland’s debt before Götterdammerung struck Reykjavik.
The markets no longer believe that the spending structure of the Russian state is viable as oil threatens to plunge below $60 a barrel. The foreign debt of the oligarchs ($530bn) has surpassed the country’s foreign reserves. Some $47bn has to be repaid over the next two months.

The Euro's Stress Barometer: German-Italian Spread
So far European banks have found support in state guarantees that have shifted the burden of the financial crisis to the shoulders of taxpayers. Traders now watch every political move,

Traders are paying close attention as contagion moves from the periphery of the eurozone into the core. They are tracking the yield spreads between Italian and German 10-year bonds, the stress barometer of monetary union.
The spreads reached a post-EMU high of 93 last week. Nobody knows where the snapping point is, but anything above 100 would be viewed as a red alarm. The market took careful note on Friday that Portugal’s biggest banks, Millenium, BPI, and Banco Espirito Santo are preparing to take up the state’s emergency credit guarantees.

The crisis won't stop here. Excess credit of the past decade has to be written off, leaving a bloody trail in more or less all banks' balance sheets.
UPDATE: Find all relevant figures in this quarterly report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS.)

Brussels predicts plunge in EU jobs and economy

The EU's economy will this year rise only by half what its experts had earlier predicted and reach a "stand still" in 2009, according to a fresh forecast from the European Commission. With the unemployment also set to rise, the "horizon is as dark as November weather in Brussels," the EU executive commented.
http://euobserver.com/9/27033/?rk=1

Credit crunch will slash CEE growth
Rapid and severe growth declines in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2009 may increase political instability. Deeper long-term problems, masked until now by almost a decade of high growth, may emerge. The current crisis is a test of all CEE economic and political models, and there will be renewed pressure for change as some parts of all models are likely to fail. The euro looks increasingly attractive to CEE economies, if only because contagion has denied the better performers a chance to escape being stigmatised

DENMARK: Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen announced yesterday that he would seek support for a second referendum on euro membership. Denmark's already-weak economy has struggled from a banking crisis and international speculation, and interest rates were raised twice in October in an attempt to defend the currency. This harms consumption and investment, with neighbouring euro-area countries cutting rates to 175 basis points below Denmark's. The central bank says it used one-fifth of its reserves in October trying to defend the krone's euro peg. Meanwhile, Copenhagen has been excluded from some European discussions on the financial crisis, as Denmark is not a member of the euro-area. After the shocks of recent months, a narrow public majority now supports euro membership -- 52%, according to a poll by the Politiken daily on November 2. However, Rasmussen has sought to avoid the destabilising effects of a second 'no' and is seeking a consensus among major parties on membership before calling a vote. If economic conditions worsen -- and the Socialist People's Party reverses its position on membership -- the prospects for a Danish vote for entry in the next 18 months are high, although the uncertain state of the Lisbon Treaty may still delay a poll.

Iceland's fisheries minister and foreign minister have said that the
country's severe financial crisis could force them to join the European
Union. Meanwhile, analysts worry that the West's snub of Iceland when it
turned to them cap in hand has inadvertently benefited Russian designs in
the north Atlantic
Iceland turns to Russia to avoid bankruptcy
RENATA GOLDIROVA

08.10.2008 @ 09:29 CET

The Icelandic government, fighting hard to prevent a collapse of its financial system, took control of the country's second biggest bank, Landsbanki, on Tuesday (7 October) and has had to run to Russia for cash to support its currency.

The country's central bank has also pegged the krona to the euro.


Iceland's traditional "friends" decided not to help (Photo: Johannes Jansson/norden.org)
Print
Comment article
Reykvjavik said it had had no choice but to turn to Russia to secure a €4 billion loan lasting for up to four years - something necessary to strengthen its foreign exchange reserves and support the krona.

"We have not received the kind of support that we were requesting from our friends. So in a situation like that one has to look for new friends," Prime Minister Geir Haarde was cited as saying by the Financial Times on Tuesday.

"In a situation like this, it's turning out that it's every man for himself, every country for itself, everybody's taking care of their best interest and that's what we are doing," he added, stopping short of revealing which countries refused to assist in the rescue operation.

Moscow has confirmed it is assessing Iceland's application and views the request "positively."

"Iceland is well known as a country with tough budgetary discipline and a high rating of reliability," Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin said, the Financial Times reports.

The volatility of the country's currency, the krona, was so extreme that Iceland's central bank had to peg the currency to the euro at a rate of 131 krona per euro.

A spokesperson for the International Monetary Fund said that a staff team from the IMF was in Reykjavik.

Iceland has been pummelled by the ongoing financial crisis, with the prime minister earlier saying his country risks facing "national bankruptcy".

"What we are doing here is saving the domestic banking system and making sure that it can function properly," he was cited as saying by the BBC, referring to the rescue plan of Landsbanki.

The institution owns British internet bank Icesave, home to some 350,000 savers in the UK and Netherlands. Its UK operation announced yesterday it had stopped customers from withdrawing or depositing money.

In separate moves, the country's central bank injected a loan of €500 million to the largest bank Kaupthing "to facilitate operations." The government has also stepped in to nationalise the third-largest bank, Glitnir, to avert its bankruptcy.

Ovo je tipican primjer budjave vijesti jer mislim da u ovih mjesec dana Island to nije dobio vec da je stao u red drzava koje cekaju da im MMF udijeli pomoc. Dobro to za sada ide spaseno je 4-5 komada od direktnog bankrota a mislim medju njima i Island. Problem je sto ni MMF nema previse sredstava pa se umoljavaju zemlje sa dosta kesha da udijele MMF pare kako bi mogao da spasava naredne zemlje. Sustina je da su krediti jako povoljni ali MMF ima istu terapiju za sve slucajeve pa neki pomru neki prezive nekako a lijecenje traje godinama. Medjutim u trenutku smanjene aktivnosti poslovnih banaka MMF je postao jedina luka spasa za mnoge drzave. Nadam se da cemo izbjeci sudbinu da cekamo u red ispred MMF-a a sve je na dlaci.

Ovo je tipican primjer budjave vijesti jer mislim da u ovih mjesec dana Island to nije dobio vec da je stao u red drzava koje cekaju da im MMF udijeli pomoc.
Nisam ni ja siguran sto je bilo na kraju, a vijest sam zbog toga i stavio (iako je stara mjesec dana), kao i jer se naslanjala na prethodnu, a i zbog toga sto sadrzi zanimljivu pricu o dolasku MMF strucnjaka, na pomen ruskog ulaska

Dobro to za sada ide spaseno je 4-5 komada od direktnog bankrota a mislim medju njima i Island. Problem je sto ni MMF nema previse sredstava pa se umoljavaju zemlje sa dosta kesha da udijele MMF pare kako bi mogao da spasava naredne zemlje. Sustina je da su krediti jako povoljni ali MMF ima istu terapiju za sve slucajeve pa neki pomru neki prezive nekako a lijecenje traje godinama. Medjutim u trenutku smanjene aktivnosti poslovnih banaka MMF je postao jedina luka spasa za mnoge drzave. Nadam se da cemo izbjeci sudbinu da cekamo u red ispred MMF-a a sve je na dlaci.
Slazem se. Imas li vise info o situaciji sa CG?

Nisam ni ja siguran sto je bilo na kraju, a vijest sam zbog toga i stavio (iako je stara mjesec dana), kao i jer se naslanjala na prethodnu, a i zbog toga sto sadrzi zanimljivu pricu o dolasku MMF strucnjaka, na pomen ruskog ulaska


Slazem se. Imas li vise info o situaciji sa CG?

Nagadjamo o tome na ekonomiji. Za sada je sve ne bas OK ali se krpi. Par banaka na celu sa prvom je nelikvidno ali se i to prevazilazi a i usvojen je zakon. Mali je problem zelja da BDP i investicije u narednoj godini rastu uz nemogucnost zaduzivanja i potrebom za otplatom sadasnjih kredita prije svega privrede i gradjana a trenutno je svako zaduzivanje suzenih mogucnosti i uz veliku kamatnu stopu tako da se moze dugorocno negativno odraziti. Situacija nije neozbiljna sto se vidjelo iz glatkog prolaza zakona o zastiti banaka i prakticno podrske opozicije, na ivici smo ali za sada sa ove strane. Ako je nesto dobro ima onih koji su sustinski u goroj situaciji.

CEE: Most new member states report quarterly growth
Preliminary third-quarter data show Central-East European (CEE) economies slowing down, but some still growing at well above the EU average, benefiting from their lower-cost, peripheral position to sell into the stagnating Union. Slovakia announced today real GDP growth of 7.1% year-on-year (albeit a slowdown from 7.6% in the previous quarter). Bulgarian GDP grew by 5.6% (6.5%); the Czech economy maintained its rate unexpectedly at 4.7% (4.6%), while Lithuania's slowed to 3.1% (5.2%). However, in Hungary, the economy was close to stagnation, rising by a bare 0.8%, with a ±0.2% margin of error (2.0%). In Estonia, it contracted by 3.3% (-1.1%), with unemployment rising to 6.2%, and in Latvia, by 4.2% (0.1%). Eurostat today announced GDP declining by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in both the euro-area and EU-27 in July-September, although the year-on-year figures were for growth (0.7% and 0.8%, respectively). With Romania yet to report, Slovakia has the EU's fastest-growing economy; with EU-harmonised inflation falling in October to 4.2%, it enters the (relatively) safe haven of the euro-area in January.

SERBIA/IMF: Fund mission urges lower fiscal deficit
Serbia, one of the most vulnerable economies in the Balkans, should survive the global financial crisis, with funding available if needed under an IMF stand-by arrangement negotiated late yesterday, Fund team chief Albert Jaeger said today. The 15-month arrangement now goes to the IMF Board for approval. Jaeger listed Serbia's wide current account deficit, weak export base and low savings rate among other problems, notably recent fiscal policy that had failed to prepare for a downturn. Serbia may draw on up to 516 million dollars, or 75% of its quota, under the arrangement. The government now expects economic growth of 3% in 2009 and has drafted a budget including a deficit of 1.5% of GDP, having been encouraged by the Fund to tighten public spending. The arrangement aims to preserve Serbia's macroeconomic and financial stability, and is much smaller than the arrangements reached with Hungary and Ukraine, thanks to the healthy state of Serbia's banking system and low short-term external debt. However, cuts in public spending, especially pensions, have provoked dissension within the governing coalition.

Haha, ne vidim nikako kako bi zemlja koja se oslanja na prehrambenu industriju mogla imati većih poteškoća od onih koje se bave proizvodnjom automobila i luksuznih dobara.
Vjerovatno misle da će građani prestati da jedu i nastaviti da kupuju auta i ljetuju na skupim destinacijama.


"Hoće li Srbija uspeti da pregura sv.fin.krizu" ??? kako to misle? pa mi nismo imali šta da jedemo 90-ih, nismo imali struje, mi ne znamo za normalan život, čemu sada takva pitanja, kao neko treba da se uplaši? pa ljudi u normalnim zemljama treba da se plaše!
(milojko, 14. novembar 2008 14:55)

:thumb_yello:

ja necu da vjerujem da se devedesete mogu vratit, ne daj ih boze ni dusmanu. sve cesca govorkanja o krizi i otpustanju sa posla oko 120000 ljudi, su po meni pritisak za saradnju sa hagom i priznanjem kosova. tipa-imas bijeli sengen i status kandidata, ili ekonomski